|
From: Robert A. Christy
Editor/Publisher, ‘The Intelligent
Trader’
http://www.christyinvestments.com
http://www.intelligent-trader.com
Date: August 14, 2008
This week has been a nightmare. What should be – isn’t.
And what shouldn’t be is. I’ve never seen anything like it in my adult
life – which is now quite considerable.
Our indicators as of Thursday still have us on offense –
so why is it near impossible to find a trade that works? In no
particular order:
Greenspan says that he sees the bottom of the housing
market. This comes from a man that did not see the crash coming.
Bernanke’s plan is to leave rates unchanged for the
remainder of the year but he changed the wording in the last minutes
release – why?
Inflation is running at a multi-year high. Why then is
gold and silver getting just trashed?
The US invades Iraq – global outrage.
Russia invades Georgia – not a word from the United
Nations. Not a word from anybody.
Russia invades Georgia – the price of oil drops $3 per
barrel.
This thing with Russia is Putin’s way of sending a
message to the rest of the world. The timing is suspicious and this is
about oil and teaching people that talk back a lesson.
Russia is re-arming Cuba and is an ally of Chavez and
Venezuela – Brazil has found a ton of oil recently and there is nothing
to stop Chavez from going after it with Russia and China as his allies.
They need the oil.
Americans are more concerned whether Michael Phelps wins
8 gold medals.
The Chinese gymnasts are 16 years old. My daughter’s 6th
grade cheerleading squad looked older – and I have the pictures to prove
it.
Is it me, or are the judges a tad biased toward
Americans? I’m not a big fan of the Olympics because no one who’s
competing is really an amateur anymore. Some of the scores look a little
fishy.
The Democratic convention starts in a few weeks and it
looks like it is going to be must see TV. Look, I may be wrong on this,
but I have made some notes and bounced these off some pretty high
sources in both parties. I have talked about this before, but for the
record:
a.
Hillary has never conceded. She suspended
her campaign and everyone has bought into the concession. Listen to what
she says and how she says it.
b.
Obama should have a huge lead over McCain
and does not which is leading more than just a few to wonder or not he
can carry the day.
c.
Where is Michele Obama? The word is that
she is being schooled on how to be likeable. She is perceived as an
angry black woman – which will not fly with mainstream America. She will
be unveiled on Monday night of the convention.
d.
Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton are not
scheduled to speak. Expect them to kick and scream until someone hands
them a microphone. The speakers the convention planners want to use are
a couple of African American ranking Representatives and a possible up
and comer running for office. Also, Colin Powell is expected to take the
dais and endorse Obama.
e.
Hillary talks on Tuesday and her speech
will tie in with woman’s suffrage. She will remind America again that
more than 18 million people voted with her. Behind the scenes, she and
Bill will be telling anyone who will listen to her that Obama is not the
leader for America.
f.
Former President Clinton speaks on
Wednesday night before the Vice Presidential candidate. Can you see
anyone following that act? After President Clinton, it’s pretty much
anti-climatic. Once again the Clinton’s make this convention about them.
Bill will also remind everyone that 18 million people voted for Hillary.
g.
The Vice Presidential candidate must be a
stand up man or woman. Look for someone from a swing state. I like
Virginia. Obama is making a mistake here because he is looking for
someone to help him get elected, not someone who would make a good
President should anything happen to him. Other big swing states are
Ohio, Michigan, Colorado and Florida.
h.
Thursday is the big day. First, instead of
a coronation, we may have one of the biggest blunders in the history of
politics. Second, the decision has been made (with Hillary’s insistence)
that Hillary’s name be placed into nomination along with Obama. Leading
up to this will be demonstrations, etc. reminding everyone that voting
is a right and the 18 million that voted for Hillary need to have their
voices heard. This will lead to a roll call vote of the states. Remember
the Florida and Michigan primaries? There will be some serious behind
door discussions as to what to do with those delegates. Nothing has been
decided as of yet.
i.
The roll call vote is going to be close –
closer than most people expect and the big networks are going to have
their panties in an uproar because the coronation will not go as
planned.
j.
The reason is the Super Delegates. These
people are not required to vote the way their states voted. These people
have only suggested who they would vote for. If it looks like Obama
can’t win the nomination in a walk, these people suddenly are up for
grabs. Remember the Clinton enemies list?
k.
All dickens breaks out. The coronation is
off and somebody else may go home with the nomination. The trap has been
set and Obama may have taken the bait. The trip to Europe has been
perceived badly and the fact that he didn’t spend anytime with the
troops doesn’t sit well with the majority of Americans. His inexperience
shows and the Clinton’s will take advantage of it.
Ok, will this happen this way – who knows. I’ve vetted
this scenario with a number of folks and I am told that it’s way too
accurate for their comfort level. It may come down to a house divided
and everything goes out the window.
I said about a year ago, Al Gore wants to be President
and he is still bitter because he lost and we haven’t heard the last
from him.
I’m out of gas and this being a grandfather thing has
really wiped me out. For the record, I am not a big fan of McCain’s
either – so it’s his turn in a few weeks to go through the wringer.
I started this by saying what should be isn’t – and what
shouldn’t be is. I’ll have more as we make our way through the weekend.
The only surprise will be if there are no surprises and everything goes
as planned.
That’s about it for now. Let me here
from you if you have any questions.
Robert Christy
The Intelligent Trader
P.S.S.
Please fee free to forward this to your peers, friends and associates
you think would benefit from its contents. They will thank you for it -
and so will I!
The Intelligent Trader's ‘Long and Short
of It’ is a free OPT-IN
e-letter. Sign Up to receive your own free copy:
http://www.christyinvestments.com. Please note: We do not spam or
give personal information to third parties--ever.
Be sure and bookmark our blogs:
The Intelligent Trader
Selling Stocks Short
About 20% of e-mail is never received
due to spam filters. If you have a spam checking program installed on
your computer, please be sure to add
rac@christyinvestments.com to your "safe list."
Robert Christy is a professional stock
trader, money manager, author and speaker. Mr. Christy is the President
CEO of Christy Investment Group, Ltd., a registered investment advisory
firm. He is also the Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager of Crabapple
Capital Group, LLC and the editor/publisher of The Intelligent Trader, a
subscription based long/short trading service. At the time of
publication, Mr. Christy may from time to time write about stocks in
which he, Christy Investment Group Ltd, Crabapple Capital Group, LLC or
The Intelligent Trader has a position. In such cases, appropriate
disclosure is made. Under no circumstances does the information in this
column represent a specific recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Mr.
Christy appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to
rac@christyinvestments.com.
Robert Christy
The Intelligent Trader
c/o Christy Investment Group
P.O. Box
625
Alpharetta,
GA 30009-0625
To unsubscribe or change subscriber
options, please contact us:
online:
http://www.christyinvestments.com
by email:
info@christyinvestments.com
© Copyright 2008 RA Christy |
