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From: Robert A. Christy
Editor/Publisher, ‘The Intelligent
Trader’
http://www.christyinvestments.com
http://www.intelligent-trader.com
Date: July 13, 2008
This weeks’ ‘Long and Short of It’.
First the Bullish Percent numbers:
BPNYSE
Os @ 26% Defense
BPOTC Os @
24% Defense
BPSP500 Xs @
32% Offense
Batman Retakes Gotham
The news late last week was that the
caped crusader has returned to Gotham to once again find it a mess and
that the forces of evil need to be put into their place. Heath Ledger’s
performance is Oscar worthy, but the real Joker is Bernanke.
DEFENSE BUT THE OFFENSE IS
LOOSENING UP
The indicators have begun shifting and
the action late last week in the financials caused the S&P 500 to flip
back onto Offense. This is a good sign but I am not jumping into this
headfirst just yet. The market has been really trashed technically and
it’s going to take some time to work this out.
The talking heads are clamoring about
the bottom and trying to call the exact turning point. That’s why they
are journalists and I’m not. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom – it’s a
process and we really don’t know where the bottom is until we look back
and say – “that was the bottom”. Like I said last week, investing in the
stock market is not about being right! It is about making money.
SECTORS
On the sector front, the average level
has risen a bit from 24.74% to 27.65%. The best two sectors are the
DRUGS and BIOMED. Field position is exceptionally good here and this is
where we are going to concentrate our buying efforts.
The short squeeze that we saw last week
was one for the ages. I am not going gangbusters on the short side until
the dust settles.
GRANDBABY MAYBE
The final countdown is on for grandchild
number one. My daughter, Ashley, thinks she’s about to go into labor
which means that my head isn’t going to be in the game 100% until this
event is behind us. Having children was a breeze compared to this. I’m a
mess. It’s going to be an interesting time around the Christy house.
TWO PREDICTIONS
This hasn’t made headlines because it doesn’t really fit any template.
The notion is that if you are going to be an economist, you need to make
a lot of predictions. The reason is that one will eventually be right. I
won’t divulge the poor saps name, but a noted Wall Street PhD took to
the airwaves and made a prediction on CNBC. Several hours later on a
competing channel, the same talking head made another prediction that
was directly opposite the first one.
This really frosts my Cheerios because no matter what happens, this
moron is going to be right. I know that this has been going on for
years, but please – don’t insult our intelligence (especially mine). And
people wonder why they can’t make money from Wall Street firm
recommendations.
I’m going to be all over this guy in the coming diatribes.
AL GORE
Our former Vice President was on the
Today Show yesterday talking down to the American people. My only
question here is this – what this guy is talking about didn’t happen
yesterday – so why didn’t he do anything about it as Vice President?
I feel the same way about the current
oil situation. Every person in Congress (especially those who have been
in office more than 20 years) has been aware of our geopolitical
problems with oil and the need to take some sort of action to reduce our
dependency on foreign sources. Their inaction has caused this problem –
not the current administration.
There are a host of opportunities in
this area and most are on our watch list. I like water, solar, wind, and
nuclear in a big way. Sooner or later the opportunity will be there.
Also, we added a coal name last week in the midst of the alternative
energy correction. I think we’re OK here and I am looking to add more to
this category as the indicators improve.
THE CORONATION TOUR
Barack Obama has
officially begun his coronation tour through Europe and the Middle East.
For the life of me, I don’t know why he’s doing it other than to cement
the notion with the rest of the world that he really is the chosen one.
It’s really an ego thing because it is fraught with risk.
The guy is a novice on
the world stage and you can’t control message outside our borders. Any
gaffe shoots down his chance of winning the Presidency and any
misstatement or off message comment could derail foreign affairs
further.
The key to this from a
market perspective is to watch how he does with Israel, the Saudis, and
our Commanders on the ground in Iraq. There will be a “tell” – most
likely in the defense stocks and the currencies.
That’s about it for now.
Robert Christy
The Intelligent Trader
P.S. Despite the sub-prime sell-off, the
credit crunch, and high oil prices, The Intelligent Trader continued to
deliver outstanding profits for subscribers in 2008. In 2007, we
finished the year up better than 17% --that's more than 3 times better
than the S&P 500 up only 5%. It’s been tough going so far this year, but
at the halfway point, we’re positive and the market isn’t. I’m looking
forward to the second half of 2008 with even higher expectations-despite
the risks most investors will face in the months ahead. If you’re not
yet a subscriber to The Intelligent Trader, I think you should give us a
try because I’m sure that will help your bottom line.
P.S.S.
Please fee free to forward this to your peers, friends and associates
you think would benefit from its contents. They will thank you for it -
and so will I!
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Robert Christy is a professional stock
trader, money manager, author and speaker. Mr. Christy is the President
CEO of Christy Investment Group, Ltd., a registered investment advisory
firm. He is also the Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager of Crabapple
Capital Group, LLC and the editor/publisher of The Intelligent Trader, a
subscription based long/short trading service. At the time of
publication, Mr. Christy may from time to time write about stocks in
which he, Christy Investment Group Ltd, Crabapple Capital Group, LLC or
The Intelligent Trader has a position. In such cases, appropriate
disclosure is made. Under no circumstances does the information in this
column represent a specific recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Mr.
Christy appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to
rac@christyinvestments.com.
Robert Christy
The Intelligent Trader
c/o Christy Investment Group
P.O. Box
625
Alpharetta,
GA 30009-0625
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