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The Stock Trading Advisor’s “From
the Trading Turret”
From: R. A. Christy
Editor, ‘From the Trading Turret’
President/CEO, Christy Investment Group
http://www.christyinvestments.com
Date: January 28, 2008
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The Markets |
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YTD Performance |
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The Dow |
12,383.89 |
-6.64 |
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The NAZ |
2,349.91 |
-11.40 |
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The S&P 500 |
1,353.96 |
-7.79 |
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The Indicators |
Column |
Percent |
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Our Field Position |
DEFENSE |
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NYSE Bullish Percent |
Os |
20% |
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OTC Bullish Percent |
Os |
18% |
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Optionable Stocks Bullish
Percent |
Os |
16% |
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S&P 500 Bullish Percent |
Xs |
24% |
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Where We Stand |
YTD Performance |
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Strategic Long/Short |
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Strategic Sector |
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Managed Forex |
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Favored Sectors:
Oil Service, Protection, Oil, Biomedics, Gas Utilities, Electric
Utilities, Precious Metals
This week’s diatribe…
In the past 25 years, I’ve seen bear markets come and
go. I’ve lived to trade another day by not going into hibernation. Time
will tell whether this is just a baby bear or the big nasty one. The
question on my mind today is how much longer do we have to endure this?
I’ve spoken to a lot of people over the past week or
so. Just about everyone has asked me the same question – what do you
think the market will do next? I’m not a forecaster, but a reactor. I
have no idea what will happen next. I will try and anticipate so that I
can be in the best position possible to make some money.
From a technical perspective, we’re not out of the
woods yet. The talking heads have called the bottom and are trotting out
the rest of their perma-bulls to make their case for them. This is
utter non-sense. Wall Street is still in a state of denial. All of the
boy wonders have blundered in a huge way. They keep talking about BUY
and HOLD as if it were the Holy Grail. BUY and HOLD is really HOPE and
PRAY.
Baby Boomers can’t afford to lose 25-30 percent of
their portfolios at this stage of the game. That’s why this downturn is
pretty serious.
Before any substantial uptrend gets underway, we need
to have a test of market lows. Time will tell whether this is the bottom
or not. But for now, we’ll keep our eyes on our indicators and take our
cues from them.
Economy
The U.S. economy is in deep trouble. Three out of four
Americans believe we are headed for a major downturn in 2008. I’ll pay
more attention to this when consumers put the brakes on spending.
Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and
Policy Research says, “If Americans are this worried about the economy,
it could cause an even sharper downturn than many economists expect.”
Keep in mind these are the same economists that never
foresaw the sub-prime crisis coming and never caught wind that inflation
may actually be a problem for working Americans.
President Bush is doing what little he can by putting
a band-aid stimulus package together with other members of Congress. The
misguided thinking is that this will help boost the economy. This is
nothing more than election year posturing and a political dog and pony
show. To have any real effect, any tax rebate should be met with a
corresponding cut in spending plus this thing should have been done nine
months ago.
Forex
The dollar may have made a near term bottom against
the yen last week. The emergency rate cut whacked the dollar in a
serious way. I was trading from the short side and flipped to the long
side as the week ended. Along the way, I managed to book a few pips from
the onslaught.
The Fed and its fearless leader, Ben Bernanke, are
truly looking in the opposite direction. The combined impact of the
current credit crisis and future cuts in interest rates will see US
rates continue to fall.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist
is understand that there is a reason why the world’s richest nations are
diversifying out the dollar. I’m willing to bet that it won’t be long
before the Wall Street crowd jumps into the fray and starts peddling
euro backed CDs and bond funds to everyday investors.
That’s about it for now. If you have
any questions regarding these strategies, or any other strategies for
that matter, feel free to email me and I’ll be happy to respond.
RA Christy
The Stock Trading
Advisor
P.S. Please fee
free to forward this to your peers, friends and associates you think
would benefit from its contents. They will thank you for it - and so
will I!
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R. A. Christy is a professional stock
trader, money manager and author. Mr. Christy is the President CEO of
Christy Investment Group, Ltd., a registered investment advisory firm.
He is also the Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager of Plato Advisors,
LLC. At the time of publication, Mr. Christy may from time to time write
about stocks in which he, Christy Investment Group Ltd or Plato Advisors
LLC has a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made.
Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a
specific recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Mr. Christy appreciates
your feedback and invites you to send it to
rac@christyinvestments.com.
The Stock Trading Advisor
c/o Christy Investment Group
P.O. Box 625
Alpharetta, GA 30009-0625
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© Copyright 2008 RA Christy
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